Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 09/23/2025 at 9:00 a.m. ET

What do bracketologists do in the college basketball offseason? The answer, of course, is work on forecasting the next field of 68. We've been tracking every transfer, portal maneuver and NBA draft entry (and exit) to project the offensive and defensive efficiency of each team and its rank within every conference. The result is an updated bracket each month until the season tips Nov. 3.

Bracket Watch

The Virginia Cavaliers are an ironic addition to the bracket. Not because the Wahoos are without NCAA pedigree, but because they represent a new kind of bubble team in the NIL and transfer portal era. The traditional irony is that Ryan Odom takes over a program he once eliminated in the historic UVA-UMBC upset of 2018. The newer irony is that those Cavaliers under Tony Bennett were one of the most stable programs, both in style and substance, and Odom's charge is to win as big as Bennett, albeit in a very different way. The first thing you notice is that Virginia has no significant returning players. And among the impact newcomers, there appears to be an emphasis on a score-first mentality: Devin Tillis (UC Irvine), Dallin Hall (BYU) and Malik Thomas (San Francisco) are likely getting paid to put the ball in the basket. Only Ugonna Onyenso (Kansas State) is a heralded defender. Regardless, look for the Cavs to overachieve in Odom's first year -- and to perhaps lead a much-needed resurgence in the ACC.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Philadelphia

WEST (SAN JOSE)

St. Louis

Buffalo

St. Louis

Portland

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Tampa

San Diego

Philadelphia

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Tampa

Oklahoma City

Buffalo

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Greenville

Philadelphia

WEST (SAN JOSE)

St. Louis

Buffalo

St. Louis

Portland

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Tampa

San Diego

San Diego

Philadelphia

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Tampa

Oklahoma City

Buffalo

Conference Breakdown

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